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Disclaimer:
Information contained herein is believed reliable but not guaranteed as to accuracy. Listings are subject to change at any time, errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. Buyers should conduct their own independent investigations and rely only on those results. All dimensions are approximate.

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New York Real Estate > FORECAST

 

 All signs are pointing to another robust year for retail properties in New York City. Jobs are expected to be added at a healthy pace, and the housing market in the city remains tight, which is supporting a high level of spending by residents. Additionally, record bonuses for Wall Street workers were to be paid out in early 2007, propping up citywide retail spending. Combined, these factors will benefit retail property owners in the
borough of Manhattan, where vacancy is forecast to fall 20 basis points this year to 4 percent. Average asking rents in the borough will remain greater than $100 per square foot, with boutique spaces of 1,000 square feet and less likely to go for more than $160 per square foot. Year-end vacancy of 4.5 percent and 4.3 percent is projected in Brooklyn and Queens, respectively, as a residential resurgence in the boroughs spurs retailer demand. As a result, asking rents in Brooklyn are expected to rise 7.5 percent to $37.63 per square foot, though rents for space along prime retail corridors such as Atlantic Avenue and Flatbush Avenue will surpass $100 per square foot. Brooklyn is one of the areas where investors are likely to spend a greater amount of time in the quarters ahead. Ambitious retail development projects, such as Atlantic Yards in downtown Brooklyn, will encourage investors to find nearby existing properties that can be either repositioned or upgraded. Other properties in the borough close to public transportation will also attract top bids. In Manhattan, storefronts in emerging neighborhoods downtown, in Chelsea and in Harlem will generate interest, but under-utilized properties in Midtown will also receive strong bids.
2007 Market Outlook
◆ 2007 NRI Rank: 1, Up 3 Places. New York City climbs to the top spot in this year’s index as solid job growth and a tight housing market spur retailer expansion one of the nation’s tightest retail markets.
◆ Employment Forecast: Citywide, employers are expected to create 61,500 jobs in 2007, a 1.7 percent increase and up from 45,000 positions added last year. By borough, Manhattan will lead job growth in 2007 with 42,000 new hires, while an aggregate 14,000 positions will be added in Brooklyn and Queens.
◆ Construction Forecast: Retail completions are forecast to total 800,000 square feet in 2007, after approximately 550,000 square feet of new space was delivered last year. The most significant project slated for delivery this year is the 300,000-square foot Triangle at the Junction in Brooklyn, which includes a 220,000-square foot Target.
◆ Vacancy Forecast: Moderate job growth and a strong housing market will support a 30 basis point fall in citywide vacancy this year to 4.2 percent. In Brooklyn, vacancy is projected to decline 40 basis points to 4.5 percent.
◆ Rent Forecast: Vigorous tenant demand will push up marketwide asking rents 5.7 percent to $67.87 per square foot. Rents in Manhattan are expected to rise 4.9 percent to $113.32 per square foot.
◆ Investment Forecast: Storefronts in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens with tenants secured under triple-net leases will continue to be coveted by investors desiring stable cash flows. Areas to watch include Flushing.

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